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Item

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Statistical Modelling of Road Traffic Accidents In Yangon (Khin Thet Tun, 2023)

https://meral.edu.mm/records/9064
b4b88b19-1bf9-4771-bcd0-8331d572e370
e8f4414c-51c7-4380-b7df-008ed8606d6d
None
Name / File License Actions
Khin Khin Thet Tun, 4 Paragu Ah-3.pdf (2.9 MB)
Publication type
Dissertation
Upload type
Other
Title
Title Statistical Modelling of Road Traffic Accidents In Yangon (Khin Thet Tun, 2023)
Language en
Publication date 2023-09-01
Authors
Khin Thet Tun
Description
Road traffic accidents constitute one of the most pressing concerns for
governments worldwide. Thousands of people are fatal and injured on the roads due
to accidents. This study aims to analyze and predict road traffic accidents and
casualties in Yangon using data from the No. (2) Office of Traffic Police for the
period from January 2013 to December 2022. Descriptive statistics show that the
number of accidents increased from 2013 to 2014, but it has significantly decreased
starting from 2015. The analysis of the binary logistic regression model reveals that
the risk factors for traffic casualties mainly include gender, place of accident, type of
vehicle, time of accident, and immediate causes of accidents. Furthermore, the bestfitting
model for predicting traffic accidents was found to be ARIMAX-TFM (0, 1, 1).
Similarly, ARIMAX-TFM (1, 0, 1) and ARIMAX-TFM (1, 0, 1) were the best-fitting
models for traffic injury and fatality data. The forecasted number of traffic accidents
and injuries is steadily decreasing, while the number of fatalities is steadily increasing
for January 2023 to March 2023. Additionally, the analysis of ARIMAX-TFM
confirms a significant impact of road safety measures on the reduction of the number
of accidents and casualties in Yangon. To reduce road traffic accidents, traffic
authorities should focus on upgrading safer driving behaviors, improving the safety
features of vehicles, enforcing laws related to key risks, conducting public awareness
campaigns to better understand the risks, and establishing a comprehensive strategy.
Thesis/dissertations
Yangon University of Economics
Pro-Rector.Dr.Mya Thandar
0
0
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