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The first one is examining the\nexchange rate misalignment, and the second one is analyzing the exchange rate pass\nthrough to domestic prices. Both analyses use the data for the period spanning from 2013\nthrough 2020. Firstly, when examining the exchange rate misalignment, this study\nestimates the equilibrium exchange rate by using Vector Error Correction Model\n(VECM) model with three independent variables: net foreign asset, government\nexpenditure and credit to private sector, and dependent variable is nominal effective\nexchange rate. NEER was misaligned from the equilibrium exchange rate, with the total\nmisalignment period around 51.9 % of the period during 2013-2020. The large\nmisalignment was in 2017, 2018 and 2020, mainly caused by natural disasters and global\npandemic. It means that the exchange rate system adopted during the study period has\nchallenges to absorb the external shock. Secondly, the study estimates the exchange rate\npass-through effect to domestic prices using Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) model\nwith five independent variables: import price, inflation, currency in circulation, output\ngap and oil price, and dependent variable inflation. The result of the impulse response test\ndoes not show any ERPT effect in the first year after shock, but there is small effect of\nERPT in the second year after shock and the average ERPT is 0.03, indicating that 3% of\nthe change in exchange rate is transmitted into import price. In the second year, the\naverage ERPT to consumer prices is 0.32, meaning that 32% of the exchange rate shock\nis transmitted to consumer prices. Therefore, the relevancy of managed floating exchange\nrate regime in Myanmar during 2013-2020 was neutral to be in line with the\nmacroeconomic situation. However, the significant misalignments observed in 2015 and\n2020 were predominantly caused by natural disasters and the global pandemic. This study\nsuggests that accumulating foreign exchange reserve to intervene the market and\nsufficient strengthening financial market development for effective monetary policy\ntransmission channel to stabilize the inflation rate, being consistent among the monetary\nand fiscal policies and exchange rate policy and sufficient financing to investors and\nii\ntraders to help improve trade facilitation are main policy agendas for Myanmar for the\nmanaged floating exchange rate regime (intermediate regime) more effective in its\nimplementation. Like other open economies, it is also suggested for Myanmar to adopt\nmore flexible exchange rate regime rather than fixed exchange rate regime in order to\nabsorb external shocks."}]}, "item_1583103120197": {"attribute_name": "Files", "attribute_type": "file", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"accessrole": "open_access", "date": [{"dateType": "Available", "dateValue": "2023-10-27"}], "displaytype": "preview", "download_preview_message": "", "file_order": 0, "filename": "TIN MOE MOE,4PhD.Ba-4.pdf", "filesize": [{"value": "2.5 MB"}], "format": "application/pdf", "future_date_message": "", "is_thumbnail": false, "licensetype": "license_0", "mimetype": "application/pdf", "size": 2500000.0, "url": {"url": "https://meral.edu.mm/record/9062/files/TIN MOE MOE,4PhD.Ba-4.pdf"}, "version_id": "2f9dd11e-a70d-41a3-b832-41ce71e944de"}]}, "item_1583103233624": {"attribute_name": "Thesis/dissertations", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_awarding_university": "Yangon University of Economics", "subitem_supervisor(s)": [{"subitem_supervisor": "Pro-Rector.Dr.Cho Cho Thein"}]}]}, "item_1583105942107": {"attribute_name": "Authors", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_authors": [{"subitem_authors_fullname": "Tin Moe Moe"}]}]}, "item_1583108359239": {"attribute_name": "Upload type", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"interim": "Other"}]}, "item_1583108428133": {"attribute_name": "Publication type", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"interim": "Dissertation"}]}, "item_1583159729339": {"attribute_name": "Publication date", "attribute_value": "2023-09-01"}, "item_title": "The Relevancy of Exchange Rate Regime in Myanmar (Tin Moe Moe, 2023)", "item_type_id": "21", "owner": "20", "path": ["1582963436320", "1582965742757"], "permalink_uri": "https://meral.edu.mm/records/9062", "pubdate": {"attribute_name": "Deposit date", "attribute_value": "2023-10-27"}, "publish_date": "2023-10-27", "publish_status": "0", "recid": "9062", "relation": {}, "relation_version_is_last": true, "title": ["The Relevancy of Exchange Rate Regime in Myanmar (Tin Moe Moe, 2023)"], "weko_shared_id": -1}
The Relevancy of Exchange Rate Regime in Myanmar (Tin Moe Moe, 2023)
https://meral.edu.mm/records/9062
https://meral.edu.mm/records/90628fad6194-b47c-4214-82f5-486870aee6a6
11ba89c9-4e5b-4d1f-a764-18b7002f09b8
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TIN MOE MOE,4PhD.Ba-4.pdf (2.5 MB)
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Dissertation | ||||||
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Title | ||||||
Title | The Relevancy of Exchange Rate Regime in Myanmar (Tin Moe Moe, 2023) | |||||
Language | en | |||||
Publication date | 2023-09-01 | |||||
Authors | ||||||
Tin Moe Moe | ||||||
Description | ||||||
4 i ABSTRACT The role of a country’s exchange rate regime plays a very important role in shaping a country’s economic situation. To evaluate the relevancy of exchange rate regime in Myanmar, this paper analyzes two issues. The first one is examining the exchange rate misalignment, and the second one is analyzing the exchange rate pass through to domestic prices. Both analyses use the data for the period spanning from 2013 through 2020. Firstly, when examining the exchange rate misalignment, this study estimates the equilibrium exchange rate by using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) model with three independent variables: net foreign asset, government expenditure and credit to private sector, and dependent variable is nominal effective exchange rate. NEER was misaligned from the equilibrium exchange rate, with the total misalignment period around 51.9 % of the period during 2013-2020. The large misalignment was in 2017, 2018 and 2020, mainly caused by natural disasters and global pandemic. It means that the exchange rate system adopted during the study period has challenges to absorb the external shock. Secondly, the study estimates the exchange rate pass-through effect to domestic prices using Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) model with five independent variables: import price, inflation, currency in circulation, output gap and oil price, and dependent variable inflation. The result of the impulse response test does not show any ERPT effect in the first year after shock, but there is small effect of ERPT in the second year after shock and the average ERPT is 0.03, indicating that 3% of the change in exchange rate is transmitted into import price. In the second year, the average ERPT to consumer prices is 0.32, meaning that 32% of the exchange rate shock is transmitted to consumer prices. Therefore, the relevancy of managed floating exchange rate regime in Myanmar during 2013-2020 was neutral to be in line with the macroeconomic situation. However, the significant misalignments observed in 2015 and 2020 were predominantly caused by natural disasters and the global pandemic. This study suggests that accumulating foreign exchange reserve to intervene the market and sufficient strengthening financial market development for effective monetary policy transmission channel to stabilize the inflation rate, being consistent among the monetary and fiscal policies and exchange rate policy and sufficient financing to investors and ii traders to help improve trade facilitation are main policy agendas for Myanmar for the managed floating exchange rate regime (intermediate regime) more effective in its implementation. Like other open economies, it is also suggested for Myanmar to adopt more flexible exchange rate regime rather than fixed exchange rate regime in order to absorb external shocks. |
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Thesis/dissertations | ||||||
Yangon University of Economics | ||||||
Pro-Rector.Dr.Cho Cho Thein |