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The first one is examining the\nexchange rate misalignment, and the second one is analyzing the exchange rate pass\nthrough to domestic prices. Both analyses use the data for the period spanning from 2013\nthrough 2020. Firstly, when examining the exchange rate misalignment, this study\nestimates the equilibrium exchange rate by using Vector Error Correction Model\n(VECM) model with three independent variables: net foreign asset, government\nexpenditure and credit to private sector, and dependent variable is nominal effective\nexchange rate. NEER was misaligned from the equilibrium exchange rate, with the total\nmisalignment period around 51.9 % of the period during 2013-2020. The large\nmisalignment was in 2017, 2018 and 2020, mainly caused by natural disasters and global\npandemic. It means that the exchange rate system adopted during the study period has\nchallenges to absorb the external shock. Secondly, the study estimates the exchange rate\npass-through effect to domestic prices using Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) model\nwith five independent variables: import price, inflation, currency in circulation, output\ngap and oil price, and dependent variable inflation. The result of the impulse response test\ndoes not show any ERPT effect in the first year after shock, but there is small effect of\nERPT in the second year after shock and the average ERPT is 0.03, indicating that 3% of\nthe change in exchange rate is transmitted into import price. In the second year, the\naverage ERPT to consumer prices is 0.32, meaning that 32% of the exchange rate shock\nis transmitted to consumer prices. Therefore, the relevancy of managed floating exchange\nrate regime in Myanmar during 2013-2020 was neutral to be in line with the\nmacroeconomic situation. However, the significant misalignments observed in 2015 and\n2020 were predominantly caused by natural disasters and the global pandemic. This study\nsuggests that accumulating foreign exchange reserve to intervene the market and\nsufficient strengthening financial market development for effective monetary policy\ntransmission channel to stabilize the inflation rate, being consistent among the monetary\nand fiscal policies and exchange rate policy and sufficient financing to investors and\nii\ntraders to help improve trade facilitation are main policy agendas for Myanmar for the\nmanaged floating exchange rate regime (intermediate regime) more effective in its\nimplementation. Like other open economies, it is also suggested for Myanmar to adopt\nmore flexible exchange rate regime rather than fixed exchange rate regime in order to\nabsorb external shocks."}]}, "item_1583103120197": {"attribute_name": "Files", "attribute_type": "file", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"accessrole": "open_access", "date": [{"dateType": "Available", "dateValue": "2023-10-27"}], "displaytype": "preview", "download_preview_message": "", "file_order": 0, "filename": "TIN MOE MOE,4PhD.Ba-4.pdf", "filesize": [{"value": "2.5 MB"}], "format": "application/pdf", "future_date_message": "", "is_thumbnail": false, "licensetype": "license_0", "mimetype": "application/pdf", "size": 2500000.0, "url": {"url": "https://meral.edu.mm/record/9062/files/TIN MOE MOE,4PhD.Ba-4.pdf"}, "version_id": "2f9dd11e-a70d-41a3-b832-41ce71e944de"}]}, "item_1583103233624": {"attribute_name": "Thesis/dissertations", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_awarding_university": "Yangon University of Economics", "subitem_supervisor(s)": [{"subitem_supervisor": "Pro-Rector.Dr.Cho Cho Thein"}]}]}, "item_1583105942107": {"attribute_name": "Authors", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_authors": [{"subitem_authors_fullname": "Tin Moe Moe"}]}]}, "item_1583108359239": {"attribute_name": "Upload type", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"interim": "Other"}]}, "item_1583108428133": {"attribute_name": "Publication type", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"interim": "Dissertation"}]}, "item_1583159729339": {"attribute_name": "Publication date", "attribute_value": "2023-09-01"}, "item_title": "The Relevancy of Exchange Rate Regime in Myanmar (Tin Moe Moe, 2023)", "item_type_id": "21", "owner": "20", "path": ["1582963436320", "1582965742757"], "permalink_uri": "https://meral.edu.mm/records/9062", "pubdate": {"attribute_name": "Deposit date", "attribute_value": "2023-10-27"}, "publish_date": "2023-10-27", "publish_status": "0", "recid": "9062", "relation": {}, "relation_version_is_last": true, "title": ["The Relevancy of Exchange Rate Regime in Myanmar (Tin Moe Moe, 2023)"], "weko_shared_id": -1}

The Relevancy of Exchange Rate Regime in Myanmar (Tin Moe Moe, 2023)

https://meral.edu.mm/records/9062
8fad6194-b47c-4214-82f5-486870aee6a6
11ba89c9-4e5b-4d1f-a764-18b7002f09b8
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TIN TIN MOE MOE,4PhD.Ba-4.pdf (2.5 MB)
Publication type
Dissertation
Upload type
Other
Title
Title The Relevancy of Exchange Rate Regime in Myanmar (Tin Moe Moe, 2023)
Language en
Publication date 2023-09-01
Authors
Tin Moe Moe
Description
4
i
ABSTRACT
The role of a country’s exchange rate regime plays a very important role in
shaping a country’s economic situation. To evaluate the relevancy of exchange rate
regime in Myanmar, this paper analyzes two issues. The first one is examining the
exchange rate misalignment, and the second one is analyzing the exchange rate pass
through to domestic prices. Both analyses use the data for the period spanning from 2013
through 2020. Firstly, when examining the exchange rate misalignment, this study
estimates the equilibrium exchange rate by using Vector Error Correction Model
(VECM) model with three independent variables: net foreign asset, government
expenditure and credit to private sector, and dependent variable is nominal effective
exchange rate. NEER was misaligned from the equilibrium exchange rate, with the total
misalignment period around 51.9 % of the period during 2013-2020. The large
misalignment was in 2017, 2018 and 2020, mainly caused by natural disasters and global
pandemic. It means that the exchange rate system adopted during the study period has
challenges to absorb the external shock. Secondly, the study estimates the exchange rate
pass-through effect to domestic prices using Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) model
with five independent variables: import price, inflation, currency in circulation, output
gap and oil price, and dependent variable inflation. The result of the impulse response test
does not show any ERPT effect in the first year after shock, but there is small effect of
ERPT in the second year after shock and the average ERPT is 0.03, indicating that 3% of
the change in exchange rate is transmitted into import price. In the second year, the
average ERPT to consumer prices is 0.32, meaning that 32% of the exchange rate shock
is transmitted to consumer prices. Therefore, the relevancy of managed floating exchange
rate regime in Myanmar during 2013-2020 was neutral to be in line with the
macroeconomic situation. However, the significant misalignments observed in 2015 and
2020 were predominantly caused by natural disasters and the global pandemic. This study
suggests that accumulating foreign exchange reserve to intervene the market and
sufficient strengthening financial market development for effective monetary policy
transmission channel to stabilize the inflation rate, being consistent among the monetary
and fiscal policies and exchange rate policy and sufficient financing to investors and
ii
traders to help improve trade facilitation are main policy agendas for Myanmar for the
managed floating exchange rate regime (intermediate regime) more effective in its
implementation. Like other open economies, it is also suggested for Myanmar to adopt
more flexible exchange rate regime rather than fixed exchange rate regime in order to
absorb external shocks.
Thesis/dissertations
Yangon University of Economics
Pro-Rector.Dr.Cho Cho Thein
0
0
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