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Modlling The Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Ayeyawady Region
https://meral.edu.mm/records/9024
https://meral.edu.mm/records/9024846d15cb-9958-4208-a160-989e77d6ebed
6d422867-106d-44ff-8e7c-24a18a89d92c
Name / File | License | Actions |
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Publication type | ||||||
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Dissertation | ||||||
Upload type | ||||||
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Title | ||||||
Title | Modlling The Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Ayeyawady Region | |||||
Language | en | |||||
Publication date | 2023-08-01 | |||||
Authors | ||||||
Thet Mar Lwin | ||||||
Description | ||||||
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of climate change on the rice yield in the Ayeyawady Region. The rainfall, temperature (maximum and minimum), and relative humidity at 9 AM, and 6 PM are considered as the climatic variables in this study. The secondary data were collected from Pathein, Hinthada, Maubin and Myaungmya Districts for the period from 1992-1993 to 2020-2021 focusing on monsoon (May to October) and summer (November to April). The Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Predictors (SARIMAX), Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were used to analyze the impact of climatic variables on rice yield. The findings reveal that maximum temperature and rainfall have negative effects, whereas minimum temperature and humidity have positive effects on rice yield in all districts. The ANN model was the most appropriate model for forecasting the rice yield. The actual and forecast values were found to be quite close, and the yield of summer rice was higher than that of monsoon rice. It was further recognized that the rice yield could be increased by fostering sustainable agricultural practices, planting climate-resilient rice crop varieties, implementing water management strategies, composting crop residues, providing timely weather forecasts for farmers and improving farmer’s adaption to climate change. A further study could be conducted to examine the impact of climatic variables on other types of crop in different States and Regions. It was also recommended to include the various socioeconomic variables in order to analyze the changes in rice yield. |
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Thesis/dissertations | ||||||
Yangon University of Economics | ||||||
Dr. Mya Thandar |