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Item

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Modelling The Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Ayeyawady Region (Thet Mar Lwin, 2023)

https://meral.edu.mm/records/9024
846d15cb-9958-4208-a160-989e77d6ebed
42963e76-a818-4643-9567-b6d406876fff
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Thet Thet Mar Lwin, 4Ph.D Ah-1.pdf (2.3 MB)
Publication type
Dissertation
Upload type
Other
Title
Title Modelling The Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Ayeyawady Region (Thet Mar Lwin, 2023)
Language en
Publication date 2023-08-01
Authors
Thet Mar Lwin
Description
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of climate change
on the rice yield in the Ayeyawady Region. The rainfall, temperature (maximum and
minimum), and relative humidity at 9 AM, and 6 PM are considered as the climatic
variables in this study. The secondary data were collected from Pathein, Hinthada,
Maubin and Myaungmya Districts for the period from 1992-1993 to 2020-2021
focusing on monsoon (May to October) and summer (November to April). The Multiple
Linear Regression (MLR), Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with
Predictors (SARIMAX), Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Artificial Neural Network
(ANN) models were used to analyze the impact of climatic variables on rice yield. The
findings reveal that maximum temperature and rainfall have negative effects, whereas
minimum temperature and humidity have positive effects on rice yield in all districts.
The ANN model was the most appropriate model for forecasting the rice yield. The
actual and forecast values were found to be quite close, and the yield of summer rice
was higher than that of monsoon rice. It was further recognized that the rice yield could
be increased by fostering sustainable agricultural practices, planting climate-resilient
rice crop varieties, implementing water management strategies, composting crop
residues, providing timely weather forecasts for farmers and improving farmer’s
adaption to climate change. A further study could be conducted to examine the impact
of climatic variables on other types of crop in different States and Regions. It was also
recommended to include the various socioeconomic variables in order to analyze the
changes in rice yield.
Thesis/dissertations
Yangon University of Economics
Dr. Mya Thandar
0
0
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