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  1. Yangon University of Economics
  1. Yangon University of Economics
  2. Master of Applied Statistics (MAS)

Forecasting The Electricity Consumption in Myanmar (1961-62 to 2019-2020) (The' Mya Thawdar Tin, 2022)

https://meral.edu.mm/records/8316
https://meral.edu.mm/records/8316
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1b707777-7f05-4922-938d-96b4f64abb77
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Title
Title Forecasting The Electricity Consumption in Myanmar (1961-62 to 2019-2020) (The' Mya Thawdar Tin, 2022)
Language en
Publication date 2022-07-01
Authors
The' Mya Thawdar Tin
Description
Electricity plays a very important role in the economic development for the
countries. This study investigates the forecasting of electricity consumption in
Myanmar by using annual time series data for the period from 1961-1962 to 2019-
2020. The secondary data of electricity consumption in Myanmar are obtained from
Myanmar Statistical Year Books published by Central Statistical Organization,
Ministry of Planning and Finance. The electricity consumption is one of the most
important energy sources to develop the human living standard, industrialization and
economic for a country. Moreover, the electricity consumption is expected to provide
well organized planning and policy for the development of the country in future. The
time series analysis of electricity consumption in Myanmar are analyzed and based on
the most adequate model chosen among ARIMA Model, Brown’s Double
Exponential Smoothing Model and Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Model.
According to the results of study, the values of MAE and RMSE for Brown’s Double
Exponential Smoothing Model are smaller than the other models. Therefore, Brown’s
Double Exponential Smoothing Model is the most suitable and used to forecast the
electricity consumption in Myanmar for the next five years. By the results of the
study, the electricity consumption in Myanmar is likely to continue on an upward
trend in the next years.
Thesis/dissertations
Yangon University of Economics
Daw. Khin Thet Tun
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