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FORECASTING OF RAINFALL IN CENTRAL DRY ZONE IN MYANMAR USING SARIMA MODEL (Thiri Aung, 2019)

http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12678/0000001282
3de33231-1730-4935-83cc-58392990f4e9
787eeeb0-c220-4efa-bb8e-af18da8823cd
None
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Thiri Thiri Aung (MAS - 51).pdf (1091 Kb)
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Thesis
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Title
Title FORECASTING OF RAINFALL IN CENTRAL DRY ZONE IN MYANMAR USING SARIMA MODEL (Thiri Aung, 2019)
Language en
Publication date 2019-12-01
Authors
Thiri Aung
Description
Rainfall is one of the most important sources of water on earth supporting the
existence of the majority of living organisms. A time series analysis, modeling and
forecasting constitutes a tool of importance with reference to a wide range of scientific
purposes in Meteorology. Examples is precipitation, humidity, temperature, solar
radiation, floods and draught. This study research applies the Box-Jenkins
methodology, employing SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Average) model to perform modeling past rainfall time series components structure and
predicting further rainfall in according to the past. This methodology are capable of
representing stational as well as nonstationary time series. The model is mostly fit to
both show the past rainfall data and thus generate the most reliable further forecasted is
selected by the R2, RMSE and BIC for model evaluation criteria. This paper explores
the application of the Box-Jenkins approach to Rainfall data series in Chauk and
Shwebo Townships in Myanmar. As the statistical characteristic for stochastic seasonal
models are also investigated and the fitted model for monthly rainfall data series in
Chauk and Shwebo Township in Central Dry Zone of Myanmar from January, 2006 to
December, 2018. The monthly rainfall date are found by the following the four states
of model building, identification, estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting. The
statistical package, SPSS software and EViews software was used to build models for
the above two series.
Journal articles
Yangon University of Economics
Thesis/dissertations
Yangon University of Economics
Prof.Dr. Maw Maw Khin
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0
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