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  1. Yangon University of Economics
  2. Master of Banking and Finance (MBF/EMBF)

CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE VOLATILITY IN MYANMAR

http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12678/0000001279
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12678/0000001279
a5fccd1c-0e78-4b1e-a6b5-36fa1962cd44
7601be6c-2650-43ad-843f-1ea084a13975
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Khin Khin Soe Myat (MBF -33).pdf (382 Kb)
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Title
Title CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE VOLATILITY IN MYANMAR
Language en
Publication date 2019-12
Authors
Khin Soe Myat (MBF -33)
Description
This study tries to examine Central Bank intervention on exchange and interbank market and to analyze the effectiveness of Central Bank intervention on exchange rate volatility in Myanmar. This study is used to analyze effectiveness of Central Bank intervention on exchange rate volatility by using GARCH model. The data was collected by using weekly observations of Myanmar Kyat against US Dollar, spanning the period from 2016 to 2018 after the adoption of floating exchange rate regime. The model includes two exogenous variables as they can contribute to the exchange rate volatility; interest rate differentials and trade balance. This implies that the CBM’s net sales of foreign exchange via auctions were associated with volatility of the Myanmar kyat against the US dollar. The results found that the net sale is positively signed, meaning that it seems if there is more CBM intervention through FX Auction, there is more exchange rate volatility in Myanmar. It is because FX auction is just a mechanism for setting reference exchange rate. However, data is not significant. In addition, the interest rate differential between Myanmar and US treasury bill is negative sign and it is statistically significance which means interest rate had not moved the exchange rate in the desired direction as there is no perfect capital mobility. The coefficient of trade balance is positive sign and it is significant. Thus, increase in trade performance leads to increase in volatility as managed float exchange rate regime is used. Therefore, Central Bank shout find solutions to trade deficits to encourage exports and tackle down imports can hinder exchange rate volatility in Myanmar
Identifier https://ecor.yueco.edu.mm/handle/123456789/530
Journal articles
Yangon University of Economics
Conference papaers
Books/reports/chapters
Thesis/dissertations
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