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A Macroeconometric Model of Myanmar ( Sun Htoo Aung, 2009)
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12678/0000001150
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12678/000000115053a740e2-6ad6-4ae1-9954-df2cda63a560
6e2f9b82-15c3-4143-a970-f5551cf88b76
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Sun Htoo Aung.pdf (12273 Kb)
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Journal article | ||||||
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Title | ||||||
Title | A Macroeconometric Model of Myanmar ( Sun Htoo Aung, 2009) | |||||
Language | en | |||||
Publication date | 2009-01-01 | |||||
Authors | ||||||
SUN HTOO AUNG | ||||||
Description | ||||||
This paper has constructed a small macroeconometric model of Myanmar using annual time series data from 1980 to 2005. The model consists of 13 behavioural equations and 5 identities, and 18 endogenous and .5 exogenous variables. The individual equations are estimated by two-stage least-squares method (2SLS) . Then, the dynamic •simulation of the whole model is performed for 1990-2005. The tracking performance of the model on the historical data is evaluated based on the two measures: root mean square percentage error (RMSPE) and mean percentage error (MPE). Multipliers of some important variables are also examined by increasing I 0 % of government consumption and exchange rate over the historical path . Finally, ex-post forecasting for 2006 and 2007 is carried out, and a comparison between forecasted and observed values is made. The results show that increase in government consumption boosts domestic income while devaluation increases the export demand. |
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Keywords | ||||||
macroeconometric model | ||||||
Journal articles | ||||||
Yangon University of Econmics Research Journal | ||||||
Thesis/dissertations | ||||||
Yangon Institute of Economics |