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  1. Yangon University of Economics
  1. Yangon University of Economics
  2. Yangon University of Economics Research Journal and Universities Research Journal

A Macroeconometric Model of Myanmar ( Sun Htoo Aung, 2009)

http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12678/0000001150
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12678/0000001150
53a740e2-6ad6-4ae1-9954-df2cda63a560
6e2f9b82-15c3-4143-a970-f5551cf88b76
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Title
Title A Macroeconometric Model of Myanmar ( Sun Htoo Aung, 2009)
Language en
Publication date 2009-01-01
Authors
SUN HTOO AUNG
Description
This paper has constructed a small macroeconometric model of Myanmar using annual time series data from 1980 to 2005. The model consists of 13 behavioural equations and 5 identities, and 18 endogenous and .5 exogenous variables. The individual equations are estimated by two-stage least-squares method (2SLS) . Then, the dynamic
•simulation of the whole model is performed for 1990-2005. The tracking performance of the model on the historical data is evaluated based on the two measures: root mean square percentage error (RMSPE) and mean percentage error (MPE). Multipliers of some
important variables are also examined by increasing I 0 % of government consumption and exchange rate over the historical path . Finally, ex-post forecasting for 2006 and 2007 is carried out, and a comparison between forecasted and observed values is made. The results show that increase in government consumption boosts domestic income while devaluation increases the export demand.
Keywords
macroeconometric model
Journal articles
Yangon University of Econmics Research Journal
Thesis/dissertations
Yangon Institute of Economics
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