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  1. University of Yangon
  2. Department of Physics

Reliability Evaluation of Two Interconnected Power Systems Incorporating Intermittency and Seasonal Variation in Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainty

http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12678/0000002346
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12678/0000002346
6ac1e7f6-acfe-404a-ad5a-77ee5dedb245
1a48021b-b717-4adc-9937-7971206a9575
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Reliability Reliability evaluation of two interconnected power systems incorporating intermittency and seasonal variation in generation and load forecast uncertainty.pdf (1731 Kb)
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Title
Title Reliability Evaluation of Two Interconnected Power Systems Incorporating Intermittency and Seasonal Variation in Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainty
Language en
Publication date 2015
Authors
Dulce, Elvin D.
Mundo, Rowaldo D. Del
Description
This study developed analytical and probabilistic models and methodology that simultaneously take into account the intermittency of wind power, the seasonal variation in hydro power, and the load forecast uncertainty in evaluating the reliability of two interconnected power systems. The intermittency of wind power was incorporated by using a
sliding window approach with 7-hour period while the seasonal variation in hydro power was incorporated by considering the hourly generation. A seven-step approximation of the normal distribution was used for the load forecast uncertainty considerations. The Loss-of-Load Expectation (LOLE) in the Luzon Grid in 2014, when assisted by the Visayas Grid, increased from 52.97 hours/year to 95.13 hours/year when the intermittency of wind power, the seasonal variation in hydro power, and the load forecast uncertainty were considered. On the other hand, when the Luzon Grid is the assisting system, the LOLE in the Visayas Grid increased from 12.25 hours/year to 32.46 hours/year. There was a significant improvement in the calculated LOLE in two interconnected power systems when the intermittency and seasonal variation in generation and the load forecast uncertainty were simultaneously considered.
Keywords
Reliability
Identifier https://uyr.uy.edu.mm/handle/123456789/471
Journal articles
8th AUN/SEED-Net Regional Conference on Electrical and Electronics Engineering
Conference papaers
Books/reports/chapters
Thesis/dissertations
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