Research Application Summary pp: 125 - 132 

Dynamics of land use and land cover change in semi-arid Karamoja sub-region, 
Uganda 

Egeru, A.1, 2, Wasonga, O.1, Majaliwa Mwanjalolo, G.J.2, MacOpiyo, L.1 & Mburu, J.3 
1Department of Land Resource Management and Agricultural Technology, University of Nairobi, 

P. O. Box 29053-00625, Nairobi, Kenya 
2Department of Environmental Management, Makerere University, P. O. Box 7062 Kampala, Uganda 
3Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Nairobi, P. O. Box 29053-00625, 
Nairobi, Kenya 
Corresponding author: egeru81@educ.mak.ac.ug 

Abstract 

There is limited information on the patterns of land use and land cover changes taking place 
in the semi-arid ecosystem of Karamoja, a key livestock producing sub-region of Uganda. 
Thus, this study was designed to determine the pattern and rate of land use and land cover 
changes in Karamoja sub-region. The study was retrospective using Landsat imagery for 
1986, 2000 and 2013. Imagery was obtained from the Global Observatory for Ecosystem 
Service and analysed using unsupervised classification in ERDAS IMAGINE 9.1 and ArcGIS 

10.1. Satellite image overlays were conducted in order to determine the patterns of land use 
and land cover change. Results showed that grasslands remained the dominant land cover 
type, however, a declining trend from 75.8, 74.2 to 66% during 1986, 2000 and 2013 period, 
respectively, were observed. The decline in grasslands is orchestrated by an increase in 
bushland and croplands over the same period. Croplands increased ten-fold between 2000 
and 2013 arising from increased promotional activities by government of Uganda and 
development actors in the sub-region. Land use and land cover change matrix revealed 
varied dynamics of change in different land use and land cover types. Between 1986 and 
2013, 98.7% of woodlands converted to other land use/cover types. During the same period, 
59.3% of grasslands converted to bushlands and 35.8% of croplands converted to thicket 
and shrublands. We have shown that bushland encroachment and cropland expansion present 
a real challenge to the continued existence of key grazing land covers in the rangelands of 
Karamoja. 
Key words: Bushland, croplands, encroachment, grasslands 

Résumé 

Il existe peu d’informations sur les modes d’utilisation des terres et la couverture des 
changements terrestres qui ont lieu dans l’écosystème semi-aride de Karamoja, une sous 
région clé dans la production de bétail. Ainsi, cette étude visait à déterminer le motif et le 
taux d’utilisation des terres et les changements de la couverture terrestre de la sous-région 
de Karamoja. L’étude a rétrospectivement utilise des images Landsat de 1986, 2000 et 
2013. Ces images ont été obtenues à partir de l’Observatoire Mondial pour les Services des 


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Egeru, A. et al. 

Ecosystèmes et ont été analysées en utilisant la classification non supervisée dans ERDAS 
IMAGINE 9.1 et ArcGIS 10.1. La superposition d’images de satellite a été menée afin de 
déterminer les modes d’utilisation des terres et les changements de la couverture terrestre. Les 
résultats ont montré que les prairies sont restées le type dominant de la couverture terrestre, 
cependant, une tendance à la baisse de 75,8, de 74,2 à 66% durant la période 1986, 2000 et 
2013, respectivement, ont été observées. La baisse dans les prairies est orchestrée par une 
augmentation dans la brousse et les terres cultivées sur la même période. Les terres cultivées 
ont augmenté de dix fois entre 2000 et 2013 en provenant des activités accrues de la promotion 
du gouvernement de l’Ouganda et les acteurs du développement dans la sousrégion. 
L’utilisation des terres et de la terre matrice de changement de la couverture de la 
terre ont révélé les dynamiques variées de changement dans l’utilisation des différentes 
terres et les types d’occupation du sol. Entre 1986 et 2013, 98,7% les régions boisées ont été 
converties en d’autres utilisations des terres /types de couverture. Durant la même période, 
59,3% des prairies ont été converties en brousse et 35,8% des terres cultivées converties en 
taillis et arbustives. Nous avons montré que l’empiètement de la brousse et l’expansion des 
terres cultivées présentent un véritable défi pour le maintien de la clé de la terre qui couvre 
les pâturages dans les terres forestières de la région de Karamoja. 

Mots clés: de brousse, les cultures, les empiètements, les prairies 

Introduction 

A growing concern among scientists (e.g. Lambin et al., 2003; Oba, 2012; Nelson, 2012) 
focused on pastoral regions is how the current trends in land use and land cover are affecting 
the grazing resource base. These shifts in land use are largely externally driven and have set 
in motion a myriad of other challenges including restricted mobility of pastoral herds, reductions 
in grazing lands and increased conflicts, especially those between farming and pastoral 
communities (Campbell et al., 2003; Nelson 2012; Oba 2012). In Uganda, livestock keepers 
in Kaliro district have experienced shortage in forage (Tabuti and Lye, 2009) due to conversion 
of communal grazing lands for agriculture. Such processes exacerbate the vulnerability of 
pastoral groups to the vagaries of nature leading to reduced livestock productivity (Nyariki 
et al., 2009; Nelson, 2012). However, there is a dearth of information on the patterns of land 
use and land cover changes taking place in the semi-arid ecosystem of Karamoja, a key 
livestock producing sub-region of Uganda. Thus, this study was designed to determine the 
pattern and rate of land use and land cover changes in Karamoja sub-region. 

Materials and methods 

Study area. This land and land cover change analysis was conducted over Karamoja subregion 
located in northeastern Uganda. Karamoja is a semi-arid region characterised by 
variable, unpredictable, and often sparse rainfall (Quam, 1999). It is principally a savannah 
ecosystem punctuated by woodlands and thickets and shrublands dominated by indigenous 
tropical C4 grasses; that are grazed by pastoralists’ herds. 


Fourth RUFORUM Biennial Regional Conference 21 - 25 July 2014, Maputo, Mozambique 127 


Satellite data and image processing. The study utilised a 27 years’ time-series multi-
spectral and multi-temporal Landsat TM and ETM+ satellite imagery. The images obtained 
were generally cloud-free (less than 10% cloud cover) with a 30m resolution. Four scenes 
covering the sub-region were mosaiced in ERDAS IMAGINE 9.1 and later analysed in 
ArcGIS 10.1. Imagery was interpreted and classified using unsupervised classification. A 
hand held Global Positioning System (GPS) was used to record a total of 465 ground 
truthing points that were used to aid image classification and validation. In order to test the 
classification accuracy, we computed a confusion matrix/error matrix. 

Data analysis. In determining both the rate of land use and land cover and change matrix, 
the study adopted Peng et al.’s (2008) computation and analysis approach. 

Results 

Pattern of land use/cover change in Karamoja (1986-2013). During the last twenty 
seven years, there have been significant changes in land use/cover of the grazing lands of 
Karamoja sub-region (Figs. 1a, 1b and 1c). The trend patterns are presented in Table 1. 
Results show that in 1986, grasslands (75%) dominated the region. Croplands only covered 
0.3% of the land area. By 2000, bushlands had increased by 2.2 to 15%. Similarly, thickets 
and shrublands experienced a fivefold increase. On the other hand, grasslands experienced 


Figure 1a. Land use/land cover 1986. 


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Egeru, A. et al. 


Figure 1b. Land use/land cover 2000. 


Figure 1c. Land use/land cover 2013. 


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a decline by 1.6 to 74.2% of the land area. This pattern was also observed in the woodlands 
and croplands. Woodlands coverage in 2000 decreased by 5.3% while croplands decreased 
by 0.24% of 1986 level. The period between 2000 and 2013 also recorded continued increase 
in the cover of bushland vegetation to 25% which represents a 10% increase in cover 
between 1986 and 2013. On the other hand, grasslands continued to experience a decline, 
falling to 66.0% which represents an 8.2% decrease. The confusion/error matrix results 
showed an overall land cover change classification accuracy of 82.6% (producer’s accuracy) 
and 75.3% user’s accuracy. 

Land use/cover change matrix 1986-2013. Tables 2, 3 and 4 present the process of 
land use/cover change within the land covers in Karamoja sub-region from 1986 to 2013. 
Three change phases are presented, the first from 1986-2000, the second from 2000-2013 
and the third from 1986-2013. Results in Table 2 (1986-2000) reveal that much of the 
woodlands changed to grasslands. Bushland to croplands experienced a marginal change. It 
was also observed that 36% of the grasslands converted to bushlands during the same 
period. Meanwhile, about half of the thickets and shrublands converted to grasslands and 

Table 1. Land use/cover change in Karamoja sub-region. 

Land use/cover types 1986 2000 2013 
Area (ha) % area Area (ha) % area Area (ha) % area 
Bushlands 
Cropland 
Grasslands 
Thickets and shrublands 
Woodlands 
352948.3 
7520.7 
2093308 
123996.2 
182576.8 
12.8 
0.3 
75.8 
4.5 
6.6 
415175.9 
1695.5 
2047648 
259863.8 
35971.1 
15 
0.06 
74.2 
9.4 
1.3 
689614 
15686.4 
1820489 
159841.5 
74730.8 
25 
0.6 
66 
5.8 
2.7 
Total 2760350 100 100 100 

Table 2. Land use/cover change matrix (1986-2000). 

Land use/cover types in 1986 Land use/cover types in 2000 
Wood- 
lands 
Bush-
lands 
Grass 
landsThickets 
and 
shrublands 
Croplands TotalWoodlands 
Bushlands 
Grasslands 
Thickets and shrublands 
Cropland 
0.2 
2 
14 
0.1 
0 
11.9 
30.2 
36 
3.4 
1.7 
78.5 
66.2 
48.1 
52.6 
44 
9.4 
1.5 
1.5 
43.7 
51.7 
0 
0.1 
0.4 
0.2 
2.5 
100 
100 
100 
100 
100 

Note: The figures marked in bold indicate the unchanged percent area during the period. 


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Egeru, A. et al. 

Table 3. Land use/cover change matrix (2000-2013). 

Land use/cover types in 2000 Land use/cover types in 2013 
Wood- 
lands 
Bush-
lands 
Grass 
landsThickets 
and 
shrublands 
Croplands Total

Woodlands 46.6 39.5 11.3 1.6 1.1 100 
Bushlands 6.6 60.1 31.1 1.7 0.5 100 
Grasslands 1.4 47.5 45.9 4.8 0.4 100 
Thickets and shrublands 0.5 9.6 66.7 21.4 1.8 100 
Cropland 1.3 43.6 15.9 29.3 9.9 100 

Table 4. Land use/cover change matrix (1986-2013). 

Land use/cover types in 1986 Land use/cover types in 2013 
Wood- 
lands 
Bush-
landsGrass 
landsThickets 
and 
shrublands 
Croplands TotalWoodlands 
Bushlands 
Grasslands 
Thickets and shrublands 
Cropland 
1.3 
5.3 
16.1 
0.3 
0.1 
44.1 
60.6 
59.3 
12.6 
7.2 
49.1 
31.4 
21.1 
53.2 
42.9 
5.3 
2.1 
2.4 
30.3 
35.8 
0.3 
0.6 
1 
3.6 
14 
100 
100 
100 
100 
100 

about half of cropland converted to thicket and shrubland. There was no transformation of 
croplands to woodlands during this period. 

Table 3 presents the land use/cover change patterns for 2000-2013. During this period, a 
considerable proportion of woodlands (46.6%) remained unchanged. This could be attributed 
to the fact that most of the woodlands that are now in existence occur in the highlands and 
are, thus; relatively inaccessible to the local communities. However, most of the woodlands 
were converted to bushlands (39.5%). In the same period, 31.1% of the bushlands were 
converted to grasslands compared to 47.5% of the grasslands that converted to bushlands. 
This relatively greater increase of bushlands in grassland areas could be attributed to reduced 
grazing patterns in some locations. 

Table 4 portrays the change in land use/cover between land cover units from 1986-2013. 
With only 1.3% of the woodlands remaining unchanged, the data show that over the last 27 
years, 98.7% of the woodlands have undergone conversion to one or more land cover type. 
Thus, woodlands converted to bushlands, grasslands, thickets and shrublands and croplands, 
respectively (Table 4). This could be attributed to vegetation clearance for charcoal production 


Fourth RUFORUM Biennial Regional Conference 21 - 25 July 2014, Maputo, Mozambique 131 


that is rapidly increasing in the sub-region. Grassland land cover experienced the greatest 
conversion to bushlands by almost six fold and woodlands by about two fold. 

Discussion 

Over the last 27 years, it is apparent that land use and land cover within the different land 
covers of Karamoja have been changing. The changes have been non-uniform in the three 
time steps (1986-2000; 2000-2013 and 1986-2013) observed in the sub-region. Notable in 
the process of change is the considerable disappearance of woodlands, the rapid rise in 
croplands between 2000 and 2013 and the increase in woody vegetation associated with 
bushlands in the sub-region. Although the woodlands appear to be recovering in 2013, they 
are nonetheless lower than the 1986 period and perhaps even the earlier periods. Majaliwa 
et al. (2009) indicated that over the last 30 years, deforestation has been rapid in the region. 
The land use/cover change matrices show a rapid increase in croplands in Karamoja subregion. 
Other studies (e.g. Ekaya, 2005; Zziwa et al., 2012; Tsegay, 2010) have shown 
increased crop cultivation in tropical semi-arid and pastoral areas in East Africa. Zziwa et 
al. (2012) observed an increase in croplands in Nakasongola, Uganda while Tsegay (2010) 
observed a similar trend in the Afar region of Ethiopia. In Karamoja, the increase in subsistence 
croplands can be explained by direct support for crop cultivation through provision of seeds 
and farm implements by the Government of Uganda and development actors operating in 
the region. It has been observed that bushland encroachment is progressively increasing in 
the sub-region leading to reductions in grassland land cover, a key grazing landscape. Bushland 
encroachment has been observed as a growing challenge in other semi-arid areas of Afar 
region of Ethiopia (Tsegay, 2010), and in Nakasongola (Zziwa et al., 2012) and the Kagera 
basin (Tolo et al., 2012) in Uganda. The reduction of fire use as a traditional management 
strategy and the absence of grazing have generally influenced increase in bushland 
encroachment (Gemedo, 2004; Oba et al., 2000). 

Conclusion 

This study has shown that grasslands in Karamoja, the key grazing land cover types are 
under threat from bushland encroachment. The growth in croplands over the last thirteen 
years is unprecedented; it is, therefore, imperative that while supporting extensification and 
increase in crop cultivation, efforts are geared towards integrated livestock-crop production 
systems in the sub-region. Additionally, considerable efforts should be directed towards the 
control of woody expansion in the sub-region. 

Acknowledgement 

This study was funded in part by a grant to Makerere University by the Carnegie Corporation 
of New York and Makerere University. Additional funding was provided by the Regional 
Universities Forum for Capacity Building in Agriculture (RUFORUM). 


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