2022-12-09T15:27:52Z
https://meral.edu.mm/oai
oai:meral.edu.mm:recid/00008362
2022-11-19T08:31:20Z
1582963436320:1582965742757
Population Projections and Some Aspects on Labour Pool Population for Myanmar
Maung Maung Thwin
In this study, based on data from the 2014 Myanmar Population and Housing Census (MPHC), the population size with age-sex structure of Myanmar have been projected for a thirty-year period from 2014 to 2044. According to the Whipple’s and Myers’ indices, the age reporting of the 2014 Census was better than that of the 1983 Census. Then, the age-sex distribution of the 2014 census was smoothed by the Hill-Zlotnik-Durch Method, and the level of fertility was estimated by the Trussell Method. To estimate the mortality level, two versions of the Brass methods, the Trussell version (1975) and the Palloni-Heligman version (1986), were applied. Net international migration data from the United Nations was employed. The combination of four fertility assumptions and four mortality assumptions produced 16 different population projections. If net migration is insignificant, the assumption of no net migration yields another 16 different projection results. According to the results, at the end of the projection period in 2044, the population of Myanmar will probably lie between 62 million and 72 million. Then, the population projections of states and regions were made by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) model. The base and launch years are 2014 and 2015, respectively. The projection was based on 2014 population estimates for Myanmar and Yangon, the middle series of population projections for 2014; and employment projections for 2015. Similarly, the data from the 2014 census and 2015 labour force survey was used to determine the projected trend for the various ratios in the BEA model. Finally, the labour pool population projections for 2016-2020 by state/region have been made.
2022-09-01
https://meral.edu.mm/records/8362