2026-09-21T09:48:36Z https://meral.edu.mm/oai

oai:meral.edu.mm:recid/1150 2024-05-27T03:50:37Z 1582963436320 1582963436320:1582965639643 user-yueco

A Macroeconometric Model of Myanmar ( Sun Htoo Aung, 2009) SUN HTOO AUNG This paper has constructed a small macroeconometric model of Myanmar using annual time series data from 1980 to 2005. The model consists of 13 behavioural equations and 5 identities, and 18 endogenous and .5 exogenous variables. The individual equations are estimated by two-stage least-squares method (2SLS) . Then, the dynamic •simulation of the whole model is performed for 1990-2005. The tracking performance of the model on the historical data is evaluated based on the two measures: root mean square percentage error (RMSPE) and mean percentage error (MPE). Multipliers of some important variables are also examined by increasing I 0 % of government consumption and exchange rate over the historical path . Finally, ex-post forecasting for 2006 and 2007 is carried out, and a comparison between forecasted and observed values is made. The results show that increase in government consumption boosts domestic income while devaluation increases the export demand. 2009-01-01 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12678/0000001150 https://meral.edu.mm/records/1150